A quick bullet point list in order to officially keep track of how much my taste differs from the Academy’s.
I wouldn’t call these predictions: these are just the people and films that, in my admittingly subjective and ignorant view, I would like to win tonight, limited to the categories for which I have seen at least half of the nominees, and I feel I really have an idea (don’t ask me about sound, or even music).
In the order they are listed on the Academy Awards website:

  • Actor in a leading role: since I don’t want to award an Oscar to Adrien Brody for looking very sad again, I have to go for Timothée Chalamet as Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown. One may wonder whether an impersonation of a real-life genius is a harder or easier role than giving life to a fictional one, but in this case I felt I couldn’t tell where Dylan ended and Chalamet began;
    • I haven’t seen: Colman Domingo in Sing Sing, Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice
  • Actor in a supporting role: as much as I would love to see my ex-acting-crush Edward Norton win for his portrayal of Pete Seeger in A Complete Unknown, I think Guy Pearce was perfect in The Brutalist, being alternatively charming and awful;
    • I haven’t seen: Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain, Jeremy Strong in The Apprentice
  • Actress in a leading role: I think this is the hardest category to assess. Fernanda Torres is magnificent in Ainda Estou Aqui, and Demi Moore would probably deserve an award - but I wished she got one for a less grotesque role. For me, this is Mikey Madison’s year as Anora;
  • Actress in a supporting role: to be completely honest, I would award Ariana Grande because she’s so much fun in Wicked, but Glinda is a one-dimensional character. I liked a lot Monica Barbaro as Joan Baez, but I don’t think it’s a role that can grant an Oscar. So I guess Zoe Saldaña should get the prize, at least to reward her for being the only person who has insisted for months on pronouncing the title of her film as I believe it should be pronounced (Pérez not Peréz). Oh and the fact that she should be in the ’leading role’ category;
  • Cinematography: since my recollections of Dune: Part Two are not super-clear, I would choose Jarin Blaschke for Nosferatu;
    • I haven’t seen: Ed Lachman’s work for Maria
  • Directing: Sean Baker for Anora is a strong contender, but I would go for Coralie Fargeat and some unforgettable choices in The Substance; I would have given at least a nomination to Luca Guadagnino for Challengers;
  • Film Editing: the best editing is the one you don’t notice, and The Monkey is not eligible, so I can’t say I have a preference, sorry;
  • Best Picture: most films this year have a ‘socially relevant’ component, but the one that feels to me the most urgent and scariest is Walter Salles’ Ainda Estou Aqui/I’m Still Here, set in Brazil during the military dictatorship. But ok, the Academy is used to give better recognition to films like CODA, so I believe that almost any other movie in the list is more likely to win than my pick;
    • I haven’t seen: Nickel Boys
  • Production Design: this must be Dune: Part Two’s (Patrice Vermette and Shane Vieau) category, right?
  • Visual Effects: or maybe this is the best place for Dune: Part Two (Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd Nefzer)? Otherwise I’d like for Better Man to win, but since I haven’t seen the film with more non-human primates, it wouldn’t be fair;
    • I haven’t seen: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
  • Writing (Adapted Screenplay): I don’t know how one can assess this category without knowing the source material, but among the films that I’ve seen, I think the best screenplay is Peter Straughan’s script for Conclave ;
    • I haven’t seen: Nickel Boys, Sing Sing
  • Writing (Original Screenplay): among the nominees I’ve watched, Sean Baker’s Anora wins this one for me;
    • I haven’t seen: A Real Pain, September 5